geezers are us

By The Helena IR - 12/05/04
As is often pointed out, it's difficult to make predictions — especially about the future. But there's one fact about the future that is inescapable. It will have a lot of old people in it.
A story in the business section of today's newspaper reports on a presentation made in Helena last week by Bob Morton, a consultant from Washington state who urges business people to take advantage of the quickly growing market of aging customers. Today, he said, about 14 percent of the U.S. population is 65 or older. In just 20 more years, that figure will jump to 25 percent. For businesses, it will be a different world.
But it isn't just corporations that will feel the change. Look around. Those older people are going to be us.
It is striking to realize that for 99 percent of human history, only 2 to 3 percent of any society on any continent ever reached the age of 65. In fact, two out of three humans who have ever existed and lived to reach 65 just happen to be alive today.
Credit better health care, coupled with smarter life styles, for the ballooning numbers of elderly people. Back when Social Security was invented in 1935 — a time when life expectancy was just 55 years — nobody was worried about cholesterol, and you weren't cool if you didn't smoke.
Another factor involves a declining percentage of young people. For decades in the United States and most other developed nations, the fertility rate has been below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 live births per woman of reproductive age. That means the geezer percentage will loom even larger.
Changes brought about by the graying of America will ripple throughout society. Some of them, such as the impact on Social Security and Medicare, are easy to foresee. Others are certain to surprise us.
But we can be pretty sure that one other truism will remain: Getting old is never going to be for sissies. But hey, we'll sure have a lot of company.